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NFL odds, picks for Week 15: Advanced computer model loving Giants and Rams

The Week 15 NFL schedule span four days, and if you believe the latest NFL odds, there could be tight battles each day. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over the Chargers on Thursday Night Football, while both Saturday games, Texans (-6) vs. Jets and Browns vs. Broncos (-3), are projected to be within one score. Five Sunday games have NFL spreads of a field goal or less, and Monday Night Football features the Saints as 6.5-point favorites over Carolina in a must-win game for the Panthers if they want to stay alive in the NFL playoff picture. With Week 15 NFL odds and lines of all sizes, be sure to check out the top NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s proven model before making any plays of your own.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 15 on a blistering 16-3 run. For the season, it is now 30-12 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-46. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 139-67 on the season, ranking in the top two on NFLPickWatch.com. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now it has examined the latest NFL odds and spreads, simulated every snap 10,000 times, and its Week 15 NFL picks are in. One of the top Week 15 NFL picks the model recommends: The Rams (-9.5) cover at home against the Eagles, who could be without quarterback Carson Wentz (back). 

Sean McVay’s high-flying offense had easily its worst performance of the season in a 15-6 loss to the Bears in Week 14. But back in the warmer weather of Los Angeles this week and facing a struggling Eagles team that has lost three of its past five and is missing several key pieces in the secondary, the Rams are in a strong position to bounce back. 

According to the model, Rams quarterback Jared Goff gets back on track with 330 yards through the air, while running back Todd Gurley accounts for around 150 yards of total offense. The Rams cover in over half of simulations, and there’s plenty of value on the over (53.5) because that hits 55 percent of the time. 

Another one of the Week 15 NFL predictions from the model: the Giants (-2.5) cover at home against the Titans. 

The Giants are just 5-8 on the season, but they’ve rolled to four wins in their last five games, including a dominant 40-16 victory over the Redskins last week in a game they led 34-0 at halftime. New York has covered its last three games against the Redskins, Bears, and Eagles. The Titans (7-6), meanwhile, were powered by a four-touchdown performance by running back Derrick Henry in a statement Week 14 victory over the Jaguars that boosted their hopes in the AFC playoff picture.

Both teams likely need to win out and get help in order to make the postseason, but the model is calling for a crushing loss for the Titans that might end their chances. The Giants cover in over half of simulations, while there’s value on the Over (43.5) as well because the model is calling for 46 total points.

The model also has a strong pick for the huge AFC battle between the Steelers and Patriots, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this weekend in a game that will shake up the NFL playoff picture forever.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 15? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 53.5)

Houston Texans at New York Jets (+6, 41.5)
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-3, 45.5)
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-7, 44.5)
Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 46)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-8, 46.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47)

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 38.5)

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-6, 45)

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-2.5, 43.5)
Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7, 36)

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-9, 44)

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5, 52)
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+5.5, 44.5)

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5, 53.5)

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6, 52)

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